The Calculations That Shape the Future of NFL Teams

In the complex world of NFL trades, teams leverage various methodologies to negotiate player and pick exchanges effectively. In our last newsletter , we talked about the grandfather of trade charts, the Jimmy Johnson chart, and the analytical player value-based Chase Stuart chart. Today we want to bring in another contender, the Rich Hill trade chart, that allows it to accurately describe what is actually in a trade, not what should happen.

The Rich Hill trade chart

The Rich Hill trade chart, developed by Rich Hill during his time at Pats Pulpit , advanced understanding how teams perceive trade values. Unlike traditional value charts, Hill’s methodology is grounded in actual trade outcomes, making it a more realistic gauge for assessing potential trades. This model recalibrates the value assigned to draft picks based on historical transaction data, reflecting a more market-driven evaluation of draft positions.

The core advantage of the Hill chart is its reflection of the NFL’s current trade landscape, helping teams identify balanced trades and understand how other teams might value draft picks in real-world scenarios. The Hill chart closely resembles the Jimmy Johnson chart, showing on one hand the massive influence Johnson had on the valuation of draft picks, but on the other hand highlights the missing progress teams did in their valuation over the last 30 years.

Future pick discount

Joseph Hafner does not just host an excellent trade value calculator , he also provides deep analyses in his Substack. His most recent article evaluates the discount teams put on future draft picks. In the past typically it was assumed that teams discount future picks by a full round, so a second-round pick next year is as valuable as a third-round pick this year. Another way was to apply a factor, e.g. 10%, quite randomly.

Joseph now analyzed in the first steps all past trades not involving players or future picks to determine which trade chart most closely resembles what teams are actually doing. Overall closest is the Jimmy Johnson chart, with Rich Hill coming in a very close second showing an more even deviation round-over-round.

In the next step he analyzed trades involving exactly one future pick and discounted this pick according to the Johnson trade chart (results with Hill chart would be very similar). He applied different discount factors and tried to even out values between the involved teams. The result is that a 55% discount factor is the most accurate estimation of what teams are doing in these scenarios.

Knowing the accuracy of the Hill chart and how teams treat future picks we are armed with all we need to review trades and look into how potential trades in the upcoming draft could look like.

A look at potential draft day trades

In the last newsletter we already took a look into the trade of the Minnesota Vikings with the Houston Texans for the 23rd pick, as well as the Stefon Diggs trade to the Texans.

Today we want to look forward and look at some scenarios that could play out next Thursday:

NYG trades with NE for pick 3

There is substantial talk about the Giants being interested in one of the top quarterbacks. While #6 is typically a good spot to draft one of these, in this years draft there is the very real possibility that four quarterbacks are off the board after the first four picks. Let’s assume the Giants want to draft their QB of the future in Round 1; that means the Giants can try to trade down to comfortably draft one of the second-tier quarterbacks (Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix) or they trade up. New England is open for business, so let’s look how a trade could look like:

Trading for pick 3 is interesting as Johnson and Hill value these first few picks differently. Let’s go with the Hill trade chart as it’s calibrated on recent trades and most likely something the Giants and Pats would use to set up the trade. Here the Giants receive Pick 3 in exchange for pick 6, a third rounder this year and a second rounder in 2025. The Giants pay a premium in the range of a mid third round pick which is in line with the excess the 49ers paid to Miami in the Trey Lance trade where they traded up from #12 to #3. Would I make this trade? No, I would stick with #6, pick one of the wide receivers and try to package a few picks to trade to the top of round 2 to select Penix Jr. Is it possible the Giants do this trade? Yes, if they are convinced Maye or McCarthy can be their new franchise quarterback, no price is too high.

Vikings trade with Arizona for pick 4

It’s an open secret that Minnesota wants to move up in the first round after acquiring an additional first round pick from Houston. The only position for a move like that is a quarterback, so let’s speculate what it will take the Vikings to secure Kirk Cousins’ successor:

Arizona made it clear they want three round 1 picks for #4, but I tell you something: that’s not happening. Acquiring two first-rounders in this year are too tempting (and valuable) to pass up, instead of hunting for another pick, the Cardinals chip in a fourth rounder to somewhat even the trade out. Considering similar trades in the past, Minnesota pays a heavy price for the trade up. But like with the Giants, the return might be worth it. For Arizona this would be a home run meaning they would own three first-rounders (#11, #23, #27 from Houston).

PIT trades with DEN for pick 12

What will Pittsburgh trade for? Another quarterback? No, here we trade up from #20 to #12 in order to solidify the offensive line with the best right tackle in this years draft - Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga. Having selected Broderick Jones last year to be their left tackle of the future, the invest another premium asset along the offensive line to protect Russell Wilson. Let’s have a look what this trade could look like:

Denver gets the Steelers’ second-rounder and in return send the first pick in the fifth round (acquired from Carolina) to Pittsburgh. The price is reasonable to have their bookend tackles in place for the next decade. I would be surprised this trade happens, but I’m sure a similar scenario with a team in the 20s trading up for a premium position will happen, especially when a players starts to fall surprisingly.

What do you think about these scenarios? Would you do these trades, what others come to your mind?

We will be back before the draft with one more pre-draft newsletter. Stay tuned and check your inbox!